Are prediction markets legal in Romania? Only with an ONJN license, and no prediction market holds one. Romania’s National Gambling Office (ONJN) treats a contract that pays out on an uncertain future event as counterparty betting (pariuri în contrapartidă) under OUG 77/2009, whatever the platform calls it and whether or not it settles on a blockchain. That is why Polymarket has been on Romania’s blacklist since 29 October 2025, and why two attempts to suspend that decision in court have failed.
The Polymarket case landed in the middle of Romania’s busiest two years of gambling reform. Law 141/2025 raised the main gambling charges, Class 2 technology and payment suppliers became part of the blocking system, self-exclusion was centralized, broadcast advertising was restricted, and OUG 7/2026 handed local councils a veto over land-based venues. This analysis sets out what changed, how ONJN applies the law to event contracts, and why Romania is an enforcement market for prediction markets rather than a place to license one.
Romania’s 2025–2026 gambling reforms at a glance
| Reform | Legal source | What it means for business |
|---|---|---|
| Class 1 online authorization fee raised to 30% of GGR, minimum €480,000 a year | Law 141/2025, in force since 28 July 2025 | A high fixed floor for every online operator, payable even in a weak year |
| Land-based fixed-odds betting raised to 25%, minimum €240,000 a year | Law 141/2025 | Higher authorization cost for retail sportsbooks |
| Class A slot authorization fee raised to €6,000 per machine a year | Law 141/2025 | Higher cost per machine, before the per-machine contribution and the vice tax |
| Class 2 software, platform and payment suppliers must block and report Romanian access to operators without a Class 1 license | Law 141/2025; trigger amended by Law 239/2025 from 18 December 2025 | The supply chain becomes part of enforcement |
| National self-exclusion procedure and central database | ONJN Order 79/2025 | Exclusion must be applied across accounts, support and marketing |
| No public figures or influencers in broadcast gambling ads since October 2025 | CNA Decision 573/2025 (Audiovisual Code) | Campaigns built for other EU markets cannot be reused as they are |
| Local council authorization for land-based venues | OUG 7/2026, in force since 25 February 2026 | Slot and retail viability now depends on each municipality |
| Polymarket blacklisted as unlicensed counterparty betting | ONJN Supervisory Committee, 29 October 2025 | Event-contract platforms are treated as gambling operators |
The table covers the changes that matter most for market entry. License fees, guarantees and technical requirements for each activity are set out in our Romania gambling taxes 2026 guide and on the Class 1 B2C license and Class 2 B2B license pages.
1. Law 141/2025: a higher floor for every operator
Law 141/2025 is a fiscal package, and gambling took a large share of it. From 28 July 2025:
- Class 1 online gambling pays an annual authorization fee of 30% of GGR (up from 21%), with a minimum of €480,000.
- Land-based fixed-odds betting pays 25% (up from 21%), with a minimum of €240,000.
- Class A slot machines pay €6,000 per machine a year as the authorization fee, before the €500 annual contribution per machine and the vice tax per authorized position.
These charges sit on top of the €300,000 annual Class 1 license fee, the €500,000 responsible-gambling contribution, the financial guarantee, corporate income tax and certification costs. The minimum matters most. An operator with modest Romanian revenue still owes €480,000 a year, so a market-entry model has to show the business can carry that floor before it looks at upside. Our cost calculator and the ranking of 25 regimes by year-one cost show where Romania sits against other licenses.
2. Class 2 suppliers are now part of enforcement
The most consequential change for B2B companies is that some Class 2 licensees now have their own enforcement duties. Since Law 141/2025, Class 2 licensees that build gambling software, host or manage gambling platforms, or process payments must block Romanian players’ access to operators that do not hold a Class 1 license and report monthly to ONJN on the players, domains, platforms and apps involved. Law 239/2025 tied the blocking trigger to access from Romanian territory from 18 December 2025.
The duty follows the licensed activity, not the license class as a whole. An affiliate, a testing laboratory and a payment processor are all Class 2 licensees, but only the technical categories carry the blocking and reporting obligation. For those that do, the operator’s license status, approved domains and geolocation controls become a contract issue. Supply agreements need clauses on authorization status, cooperation with ONJN information requests and suspension of service when an operator loses its license. The mechanics are in Class 2 reporting obligations under Law 141/2025.
3. Player protection and centralized self-exclusion
ONJN Order 79/2025 set a single procedure for self-exclusion requests and access to the central database ONJN administers. Licensed operators must pass requests to ONJN within set deadlines and apply each exclusion across account access, customer support and marketing. A responsible-gambling page is no longer enough: the operator needs a documented process showing how an exclusion is recorded, checked at login and respected in every channel, applied together with data-protection rules. See Romania’s responsible gambling rules for 2026 and self-exclusion breaches and ONJN enforcement.
ONJN’s public register of gaming equipment and venues serves the same purpose for land-based gambling: authorities, partners and players can check whether a machine or location is authorized. That makes consistency between what an operator runs, what ONJN has on record and what it reports a compliance issue in its own right.
4. Advertising limits and the local-council veto
Broadcast advertising. The Audiovisual Code, as amended by CNA Decision 573/2025, has barred public figures and influencers from broadcast gambling advertising since October 2025. A campaign that works in another EU market needs a Romanian review of its format, cast and channel before it airs.
Land-based venues. OUG 7/2026 (Monitorul Oficial no. 146 of 25 February 2026) requires an annual local operating authorization from the local council for land-based gambling venues, on top of the ONJN license and authorization. Councils can permit or ban gambling in their territory, set zones and charge an annual local fee, and ONJN renews slot authorizations only for operators holding the local permit. Online gambling is not affected. The effect on slot numbers is covered in OUG 7/2026 and Romania’s slot machines.
5. What a prediction market is, and why ONJN calls it betting
A prediction market lets users take positions on the outcome of a future event: an election, a match, an interest-rate decision. Contracts are typically quoted as “Yes” and “No”, their price moves with the market’s view of the probability, and at settlement each winning contract pays a fixed amount. Some platforms run on a blockchain and settle in stablecoins; others use conventional clearing.
Romanian law already has a category for this structure. OUG 77/2009 recognizes counterparty betting (pariuri în contrapartidă), where participants bet against each other and the organizer runs the market and takes a commission without setting the odds itself, a betting exchange. When ONJN assessed Polymarket, it looked past the trading interface to the transaction and found every element of that activity:
| Element ONJN looks for | How a typical event contract matches it |
|---|---|
| A stake | The user pays money, or crypto with economic value, to buy a position |
| An uncertain future event | The payout depends on an outcome not yet known |
| A chance of winning | A correct position pays out more than it cost |
| Opposing participants | Other users hold the opposite position; the platform matches them |
| An organizer that earns from the activity | The platform lists markets, settles them and takes fees |
When all five elements are present, the “trading” label and the blockchain do not change the result: the activity needs a Romanian gambling license. Settlement in crypto adds AML, custody and payment questions without removing the gambling one.
6. The Polymarket case: blacklisting and court challenges
On 29 October 2025, ONJN’s Supervisory Committee added Polymarket to the blacklist of unauthorized gambling sites, and internet providers were instructed to block it. ONJN cited public data showing more than USD 600 million traded on markets tied to Romania’s presidential election and more than USD 15 million on the October 2025 Bucharest local elections. Trading volume is not the same as player deposits or platform revenue, but the figures showed that Romanian players were a target market.
Polymarket went to court and asked for the decision to be suspended while it seeks annulment:
| Step | Outcome |
|---|---|
| First suspension request | Rejected on procedural grounds; announced by ONJN on 1 April 2026 |
| Second suspension request | Rejected as unfounded, not on a procedural point; announced by ONJN on 14 July 2026 |
| Action for annulment on the merits | Pending at our last check; outcome of later hearings not confirmed |
Suspension rulings are not a judgment on whether ONJN classified Polymarket correctly. They do mean the blacklisting has stayed in force for more than a year. We will update this article when a decision on the merits is published. Background on the original decision is in Polymarket blacklisted in Romania.
7. Why Romania is not a licensing route for prediction markets
A recognized category of counterparty betting is not the same as a workable license for event contracts. An applicant would be treated as a Class 1 betting operator, with everything that implies:
- Cost. The 30% authorization fee with a €480,000 annual minimum, a €300,000 annual license fee and a €500,000 responsible-gambling contribution, plus a financial guarantee for betting. That is more than €1 million a year in government charges before the first market opens, on a product whose fee margins are thin.
- Establishment. A Romanian entity or a permanent establishment, with local key functions, reporting and tax compliance.
- Product fit. Every contract would have to fit the betting rules: event universe, result verification, settlement, limits and player protection. Markets on elections, court rulings or corporate events raise integrity and insider-information questions that a sports-betting framework was not written for.
- Technology and payments. Platform certification, Romanian KYC and payment requirements, and, for crypto settlement, custody and AML controls on top.
ONJN’s message in the Polymarket case was enforcement, not an invitation. For a prediction-market business, Romania is a market to geo-block and keep clean, including through its Class 2 suppliers, rather than a jurisdiction to license in.
8. How other regulators treat prediction markets
There is no single “prediction-market license” that works everywhere. The main reference points in 2026:
| Jurisdiction | Treatment | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Romania | Counterparty betting under OUG 77/2009 | ONJN license required; unlicensed platforms are blacklisted |
| Great Britain | Betting intermediary (UK Gambling Commission, 4 February 2026) | Commission license required; spread betting stays with the FCA |
| Germany | Bets on political and social events (Gesellschaftswetten) are illegal (GGL; GlüStV 2021 allows sports betting only) | No license available for election or social-event markets |
| United States | Event-contract exchanges supervised as derivatives markets by the CFTC | QCX LLC (Polymarket US) is a designated contract market since 9 July 2025 |
| Nevis | Dedicated prediction-market license from NOGA since 30 October 2026 | €18,000 a year for B2C or B2B, Nevis company required |
Great Britain. The UK Gambling Commission said on 4 February 2026 that current prediction-market products would fall within the definition of a betting intermediary, the license created for betting exchanges, and that it does not accept that such operators can class themselves as non-gambling. Unlicensed operators must not target or transact with British consumers.
Germany. The GGL has warned that offering, brokering, advertising and taking part in bets on political and social events is illegal. The State Treaty on Gambling 2021 permits betting on sporting events only, so an exchange structure does not make an election market licensable.
United States. The CFTC register lists QCX LLC, operating as Polymarket US, as a designated contract market since 9 July 2025. That status belongs to the registered US entity and the contracts it lists. It is not an authorization for Polymarket’s international platform, and it has no effect in Romania or the EU.
Nevis. NOGA’s new license is the first offshore regime written for event contracts, with conditions on event definition, resolution sources, manipulation and insider-trading controls, and the safeguarding of open positions. Details in Nevis prediction-market license 2026. Like any license, it does not authorize customers in markets that require their own license, Romania included.
9. What prediction-market and B2B businesses should do now
- Classify each contract type. Sports, elections, economic data and corporate events may fall under different rules in each target market.
- Map where users are. Treat Romania as a blocked market unless and until you hold an ONJN license; geolocation and KYC must keep Romanian residents out.
- Check your Class 2 partners. If you use a Romanian-licensed platform, hosting or payment provider, expect it to block Romanian access to you and report it to ONJN.
- Choose a license built for the product. Compare dedicated regimes such as Nevis with exchange-style licenses where they exist, and with derivatives regulation in the US.
- Keep marketing out of Romania. Romanian-language campaigns, local influencers and broadcast placements will be read as targeting.
- Separate the gambling and financial questions. A gambling license does not settle custody, stablecoin or securities issues, and a financial license does not settle the gambling one.
Conclusion
Romania spent 2025 and 2026 making its regulated market more expensive and its enforcement wider: higher minimum charges, suppliers that must block unlicensed operators, centralized self-exclusion, tighter advertising and local control over venues. The Polymarket case shows ONJN applying the same law to event contracts. The interface does not decide the classification; the transaction does. For prediction markets, the practical conclusion is to keep Romanian users out and license the product where a regime has been written for it.
If you are deciding where an event-contract or betting-exchange product can be licensed, or you are a Romanian Class 2 supplier working out your blocking and reporting duties, book a free 20-minute fit call through our contact page.
